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March 7th-8th Snowstorm Part 3

27 April, 2008 (19:34) | Spring is finally here! | No comments


March 7-8 Snowstorm - Part 3

The numbers are in and Toronto East York, as I have predicted received more snowfall than in most regions in the city. I went outside this morning and took measurements in the park and total average snowfall is 27 cm. Environment Canada measurements throughout the city ranged from 15 cm at Toronto Pearson International Airport (west side) to around 25 cm everywhere else. The hardest hit area in the province is the Niagara Escarpment region (51 cm) and Ottawa (up to 52 cm).

Nevertheless, the snowstorm we’ve had is another testament that weather is local. If you live more than 20 km away from an airport and/or your topography has its own unique features, you’ll might experience different weather conditions. For example, we often get a bit more snow here in East York than at Pearson Airport in the west side. During summer afternoons, downtown Toronto readings are slightly cooler than further inland. It is also for this reason that Marquette, MI becomes the second snowiest major U.S. city because the official weather station moved from the city to the airport located just 12 km west and about 500 feet higher. The average snowfall for Marquette shifted from 300 cm (old location) to 457 cm. Therefore, I’m always fascinated how weather conditions vary even within a large city like Toronto. Since I live here at Sunnybrook Park, I rely on my weather station’s reading rather than at Toronto Pearson airport which is about 40 km away.

Although winter is winding down, I want to share a very important document from the National Weather Service on how to measure snow properly. I was participating in the Accuweather forum yesterday and people were sharing snowfall measurements from their backyard. However, most of them were not doing it properly such as measuring too close to the roof of their house, only taking one measurement or just reporting the drift as the absolute measurement. For this reason, I would like to share some of the guidelines from the NWS Snow Spotter Guideline booklet.

Before the First Snow

Place your snowboard outside. A snowboard can be any lightly colored board that is about 2 feet by 2 feet. A piece of plywood painted white works very well. Choose a location that is away from trees, buildings, and shadows. Try to avoid areas that are known to be prone to drifting. Mark the location of the snowboard with a stake so you can find it after a fresh snowfall.

Measuring Snowfall

Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch (or cm in Canada). Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. If you remember back in January 11-12, 1997, Montague Township, NY reported an astonishing 24-hour snowfall of 195.6 cm of snow. Later analysis revealed, however, that measurements were conducted more than four times within 24 hours and therefore, their snowfall measurement was not considered official.

You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total.

Special cases:

- Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall.

- Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded.

- Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total.

- Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not.

Measuring Snow Depth

The depth of snow on the ground includes both new snow and old snow which was in place. Measure the total snow depth at several locations in your yard which have not drifted or blown. Take an average of these measurements to arrive at the snow depth. Sometimes old snow can be very hard and crusty underneath the new snow. Be sure that the ruler gets all the way down to the underlying ground. Snow depth is measured to the nearest inch (or cm in Canada).

March 7th-8th Snowstorm - Part 2

27 April, 2008 (19:34) | Spring is finally here! | No comments

As predicted, the second round of snow arrived in the city around 3 pm. The winds picked up and snowfall rate intensified. Computer models are showing that the storm will linger around the area overnight tonight and will swiftly shift eastward by tomorrow morning.
So I went outside to battle the elements and in its simplistic form, a true Canadian winter storm. I did my snowfall measurements and took the average. Here are the summary for today as of 1700 EST:

Davis Vantage Pro2

Max temperature: -5.1 deg. C (1158 EST)
Min temperature: -6.6 deg. C (1658 EST)

High wind gust: 40.2 km/h (1555 EST)

Low SLP: 998.31 mb (1657 EST)

Fresh snowfall (average): 20.0 cm but it’s still snowing so this is not the final measurement

Snow on the ground (average): 27.6 cm

The all-time 24 hour record in the city:

Toronto Pearson - 39.9 cm (02/25/1965)

Downtown Toronto - 48.3 cm (12/11/1944)

March record (Toronto Pearson): 32.3 cm (3/10/1964)

For comparison, here is a list of world record point snowfalls:

30 minutes - 15.3 cm in Copenhagen, NY (12/2/1966)

1 hour - 30.5 cm in Copenhagen, NY (12/2/1966)

2 hours - 44.5 cm in Oswego, N (1/26/1972)

12 hours - 101.6 cm in Montague Township, NY (1/11-12/1997)

24 hours - 192.5 cm in Silver Lake, CO (4/14-15/1927)

unofficial reading of 213.4 cm in Crestview C.H. Dept, CA (1/14-15/1952)

24 hours (Canada) - 145.0 cm in Tahtsa Lake, BC (2/11/1999)

48 hours - 306.3 cm in Thompson Pass, AK (12/29-30/1955)

Source: Extreme Weather - A Guide and Record Book by Christopher C. Burt

There is still a lot of steam in this low pressure system. I’ll provide another update soon including the historical record for the month of March here at Toronto East York weather station.

Take care :)

March 7th-8th Snowstorm

27 April, 2008 (19:34) | Spring is finally here! | No comments

March 7-8 Snowstorm

This will be the worst snowstorm of the winter 2007-2008 season. There you go, I said it.

It can be argued that the snowfall we received on February 5-6 was astonishing (up to 35 cm in East York); however, it was lacking the winds that is often associated with crippling snowstorms and we received rain the previous day. The lowest pressure we recorded here at the Toronto East York weather station was an impressive 999.3 mb. Although the March 7-8 storm will not reach that level (more like 1004 mb), the impact will be more significant considering we’ve just had a snowstorm 48 hours ago and the winds are expected to reach in excess of 60 km/h from the north.

Some numbers to consider…

Snowfall forecast: (as of 10:00 pm March 7)
Environment Canada - 30 to 40 cm
The Weather Network - 25 to 30 cm
CityTV (Michael Kuss) - 20 to 30 cm
680 News (Brian Hill) - 20-30 cm
Accuweather (Brett Anderson) - 18 to 28 cm

As for my prediction, I’ve looked at all the available computer models (NGM, NAM, GFS) and it seems like we’ll get at least 25 cm but higher amounts here at East York due to the track of the storm. However, the GFS model is showing a dry slot just east of Pennsylvania and New York state but it won’t concern me that much.

If the forecast is correct, we could set new weather records for Toronto (at least based at Pearson Airport where they have keeping records since 1937). As of now, the record daily snowfall for March 8 is 17.8 cm set in 1980 while 20 cm was on the ground in 1999. And the all-time March daily record snowfall is 32.3 cm set in March 10, 1964. I’m more confident that we’ll break the first two records but the all-time March record, maybe not at Pearson. We could get localized snowfall of more than 30 cm but in higher elevations and east of the city.

To avoid confusion, we’re under a Winter Storm Warning. I don’t really appreciate it when some media outlets use the term “blizzard” since it does not fulfill the official definition as outlined by Environment Canada:

  • Winter Storm Warning - issued when more than 25 cm of snow is expected to fall within 24 hours;
    • or forecasters expect two or more Winter Weather Warning criteria to be exceeded simultaneously; for instance, if more than 15 cm of snow was expected to be accompanied by winds of more than 60 km/h.

Environment Canada issues a Blizzard Warning in Ontario when all of the following conditions are expected to persist for a minimum of 4 hours:

  • winds of 50 km/h or more
  • and visibility of 1 km or less
  • and wind chill values of -25 or lower


With daytime highs around -3 and -5 degrees Celsius and sustained winds around 40 km/h, wind chill will only be between -12 and -15. Note that we don’t add the unit Celsius in wind chill since it’s not measured (like temperature) but calculated using a formula. More about wind chills in my next blog.

So sit back and relax. If you don’t like to battle the wind and the snow, monitor weather readings live using our Live Weather Updates.

Stay safe :)

March 5th Snowstorm

27 April, 2008 (19:33) | Spring is finally here! | No comments

March 5th Snowstorm

Of course, the primary purpose of a blog is to gauge the pulse of the day. It is suiting then to start my first “unofficial” weather blog about the March 5th snowstorm we’ve had in Toronto (although the system affected much of Southern Ontario and moved eastward to the Atlantic but as the adage goes, “Toronto is the centre of the universe” so I’ll focus more on how the storm affected the city).

I’m fascinated how the media portrayed the storm 12 hours before it arrived. It started with the operatic background music played during the “StormWatch” segment of the The Weather Network. Sheryl Plouffe proudly announced the arrival of the system while Chris Murphy heightened the excitement by flashing various maps showing the possible permutations from this storm. After a dizzying five minutes, I switched the channel and investigated the news stations. Michael Kuss from CityTV predicted between 5 and 15 cm but it’s always a common practice in meteorology to predict a range rather an exact value. It’s a smart move since different factors such as topography and proximity to the lake can greatly affect the snowfall. CFTO News, relying on Environment Canada’s Forecast, had Dave Devall deliver the news but it’s the same story: snow, freezing rain and ice pellets.

If the story is not melodramatic enough, Brian Hill from 680 News proudly proclaimed his weather guarantee for that day. Even before the storm arrived, the hype is too high that at one point I felt like the winter storm story overshadowed the hotly contested Democratic Primary in the US (Shhh…don’t tell that to Wolf Blitzer or else he’ll play a more spine-chilling background music while ending his sentence with “You’re watching CNN).

12 hours later, we got our mixed bag of precipitation and it was evident that there was one party that was not happy. I’m not referring to Obama’s but those who got stuck in traffic, late for work or simply, those who are tired and sick of the winter weather. As for the forecast, it seems like the meteorologists (or wannabes in some tv stations) are somewhat correct in their prediction. Based on Environment Canada’s Special Weather Bulletin, snowfall in the city range between 12-16 cm.

Expect another round of battle this weekend as a storm is developing over Texas and Toronto, as the centre of the universe, is once again in direct hit….or they say so.


Hello world!

31 March, 2008 (21:13) | Is it spring or summer? | No comments

The TorontoForecast.com weather blog is now up and running. Starting April 28, 2008 we will feature daily weather commentaries affecting people in the Greater Toronto Area.

For the meantime, feel free to read previous weather blogs. More detailed weather information and in-depth analysis is available in our main weather site at:

www.TorontoForecast.com


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